America’s restaurant industry is expected to see measured growth in 2026, despite ongoing challenges related to costs and consumer spending. The National Restaurant Association’s 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry report projects total restaurant and foodservice sales will reach $1.55 trillion, with more than 100,000 new jobs anticipated.
The report highlights that while the industry is growing, operators are facing a mixed economic environment. Rising operating expenses and uneven customer traffic remain concerns for many businesses. Consumers, especially those from lower- and middle-income households, are also feeling financial pressure. Nevertheless, dining out continues to be a priority for most adults in the United States.
Michelle Korsmo, President & CEO of the National Restaurant Association, stated: "Restaurants remain an economic powerhouse that, even when faced with soft consumer spending and sustained margin pressures, drives job growth and fosters entrepreneurship. The industry’s resilience is driven by its people, its adaptability, and its ability to evolve alongside consumers, making continued investment in workforce, innovation, and smart policy solutions essential to long-term growth."
According to the report’s findings:
- Growth is expected to be modest due to continued cost pressures. Many operators believe sales will either hold steady or improve this year. Real sales growth is forecasted at 1.3 percent.
- There remains strong demand for restaurant experiences among consumers; over 70% say they would visit restaurants more often if they had greater disposable income. Gen Z and millennials continue to drive off-premises dining trends.
- Employment in the sector is projected to reach 15.8 million jobs by 2026. Nearly three quarters of operators plan on hiring but anticipate difficulty finding experienced staff members.
- Rising costs—such as food prices, labor expenses, insurance rates, energy bills, and transaction fees—are cited as major challenges by more than nine out of ten operators. In the previous year alone, 42 percent reported their business was not profitable.
- To address these issues and improve margins, many businesses are investing in workforce development programs as well as technology like ordering systems powered by artificial intelligence or data analytics tools.
Looking ahead into 2026’s uncertain economic climate requires restaurant owners to adapt quickly through creativity and technology adoption—particularly digital ordering platforms and automation—to balance higher costs with restrained consumer spending.
Operators are focusing on innovations such as loyalty programs and targeted marketing strategies aimed at enhancing guest engagement while streamlining operations.
Workforce training remains a key focus area for many employers who see value not just in improving service but also supporting broader career development within an industry that employs more Americans than any other sector.
Dr. Chad Moutray, Chief Economist for the National Restaurant Association said: “Success for operators this year will hinge on their ability to get the math right in a still-challenging economic environment... After a year when 60 percent of operators reported softer customer traffic there is cautious optimism for improvement. At the same time operators remain laser-focused on controlling costs while delivering value and providing satisfying menu innovation that resonates with consumers.”
For further details about current trends affecting restaurants nationwide readers can consult additional information from the National Restaurant Association's State of the Restaurant Industry report.
